[NOTE: I am writing this from the perspective of one who serves a particular denomination. Any illustrations or observations come from that perspective. I have only served in one denomination for 39 years, so my perspective is limited to that realm. This is a long read and unless you are interested in, serve in, or have a heart or concern for denominations and denominational work, you probably will find it less compelling. If you call yourself a Southern Methodist or have an interest in The Southern Methodist Church, I implore you to read it in the hope that a crucial and profitable discussion/dialogue can begin concerning these issues. However, many observations are not limited to denominations. Organizations and local churches face the same problems and are likely to respond in the same ways.]

Recently I came across and read an article by Thom Rainer entitled “Fourteen Predictions for the American Church for 2014.” It stirred within me feelings that I had been suppressing amid the rigors of secular employment and the demands of church
ministry. Having been less involved in denominational events and meetings due to these commitments for about a decade now, I know that I am probably not the one to speak out on the issues raised in my mind by the article. However, being on the sideline
of denominational involvement also gives a different perspective that may be needed. It’s too easy in the thick of the struggle to see only the immediate surroundings and to fail to see the larger picture. And the larger picture is one of denominational illness and
possible death.

Sadly, there are signs of death surrounding most denominations, and not just liberal ones. For every one thousand churches that open each year, four thousand close. Fewer churches are being planted by denominations. In our denomination one church
has been planted in the US in the last 20 years and maybe a handful in the 20 years before that. Fewer pastors are being recruited and trained by our denomination and their loyalty toward the denomination will be significantly less than previous generations, if it exists at all. The aging of current pastors and members is another sign of death. Pastors and church members do not live forever and when they pass and aren’t replaced, their churches close and the denomination edges closer to extinction. For those of us who have spent many years serving in denominations (close to 40 for me) these signs of the times are particularly painful. I have watched as three of the churches I have pastored, and even my home church (all thriving works at one time), close and I have mourned their passing as I would the death of a loved one.

Sadly, we ignore the warning signs. We reminisce about the “former days of glory” and hope that somehow they will magically reappear. Some may be even hoping that a “messiah” will come along and lead us back to victory. We continue to function as
before, ignoring the signs of death. We maintain staff and increasing budgets as though funds were not decreasing and the mask of any prosperity comes at the expense of the future, because we have to live off the sale of properties instead of investing it in
growth. We may seem healthy, as a man might, even as the reality of terminal cancer or an impending heart attack is lurking on the inside. The appearance of health only masks the problem and allows it to continue its work of death. The desperate attempts
to seem “normal” or “okay,” the stubborn refusal to “face the facts,” exacerbates the situation, making the receiving of help unlikely, even impossible. With each passing of the guard, a glimmer of hope appears briefly then evaporates as the same course is
followed. We tell ourselves that we need continuity, stability, in turbulent times like these, but these words fail to cover the complacency and inner fears that really grip us when harsh reality sets in.

Sadly, some will respond to this message of impending doom with an accusation that the messenger is deluded and fails to see the true situation. If I am wrong, then by all means, ignore what I say. As I told denominational leaders and church representatives
the last time I had to deliver a harsh and difficult message, I wish I were wrong, that nothing would please me more than being wrong, and that I would be the first person to step aside and celebrate my failure to perceive the facts. I was not wrong then, but I
would still like to be wrong now, even as my head overrules my heart and forces me to stand by my analysis. Others will respond that a pessimistic perspective is inappropriate for such a time. What we need is a positive voice, one that will inspire hope and
engender confidence. My nature is not to be pessimistic. Those who truly know me know that I seek to be positive and encouraging. But I am what I call a “positive realist” who believes that we can’t be positive, if we ignore reality. Some will attribute faulty
motivation to my analysis, thinking that I am trying to make a name, seek an office, or be placed in the spotlight. That is not the case. I have nothing to gain and much to lose, but like Ezekiel, I believe that to see and fail to report as a faithful watchman should is
to be guilty of being irresponsible and unfaithful to the call to warn of danger.

Sadly, some will respond with an immediate dismissal. We don’t want to face the harsh reality and don’t want to expend the energy and endure the hardships that this challenge will require, if we are to meet it squarely. We feel that we can ignore the situation for a little while, hoping that a cure will come along, if we can just hang in there a little longer. If we don’t acknowledge it, maybe it will disappear or vaporize as an illusion, thinking that we have refused to give it life by such acknowledgement. If we ignore it, it will go away. Forget the facts, let’s just forge ahead as if nothing is different, nothing is wrong, nothing speaks of danger. But what we don’t know can hurt us, what we fail to acknowledge will affect us, what we refuse to hear will continue to ring loudly, whether or not we respond. If we aren’t careful, we will be tempted to give a sigh of resignation and decide to give up without a struggle or a fight. We may conclude that death is inevitable and, therefore, the best course of action is to accept the fact. The question is this: Is living worth the effort; is this something worth fighting for?

Sadly, some may respond in anger and seek to find someone or something to blame for the current state of affairs. We can blame our culture for being less concerned about denominations and denominational loyalties. We can then respond by setting more
stringent rules that seek to force loyalty. But we know that such a response will only make the situation worse. We can blame past leaders and say that they should have been more perceptive, that they should have seen these things coming, that they should have taken firm action and exerted stronger leadership. Of course, whether or not they deserve blame (just remember that all leaders are human and can make mistakes, fail to act or simply fail to lead), we cannot go back and change the past. Regret, second‐guessing, and blame will not correct the present or change our situation. We can blame ourselves for sitting on the sideline and letting things drift along toward disaster. But again, that will not change the situation. We can even blame God for not blessing our efforts as we think He should have. But He could blame us for not being more perceptive to His Spirit and more responsive to His leadership. Any way you look at it, the blame game is ultimately a waste of time and energy. We fail to agree on the source of blame, while we continue to flounder, and we expend valuable resources in such futility.

Some may be ready to take action. They may chide that we have waited long enough. Now is not a time for words, but a time for doing. However, just taking action may result in a beating of the wind, a flailing of the hands, an exercise in futility. More than
action is needed; we need thoughtful action. I applaud those of you who wish to move and move swiftly. I share your focus on action. I’m tired of words; I want to see results. But when resources are limited (and they usually are), they must be focused to provide
maximum results. When you are down to your last bullet, you must take aim carefully. You can’t afford to miss again. This may be the last shot at success, a last resort for a cure, a last chance at redemption. So we must proceed swiftly, but with caution.

What are denominations supposed to provide? Doctrinal integrity, cooperative ministry, leadership development, committed fellowship, educational resources, and strong encouragement come to my mind.

Doctrinal integrity is essential, if a denomination is to remain true to the Bible and its roots. However, this must involve more than a doctrinal statement or a pastoral form affirming agreement with the doctrinal statement. It cannot depend solely on a committee or group to investigate and to discipline doctrinal deviations and deviators. It must involve a close association and oversight that keeps tabs on pastors and congregations and encourages them to stay the course and maintain the standards.

Close associations that strengthen resolve and bolster convictions are needed. Cooperative ministry involves activities and ministries that require greater resources and organization than a single congregation can tackle alone. Shared ministries such as supporting and sending missionaries, summer camps, Bible training, benevolent activities, resource development, and other such ways help churches become a part of larger kingdom work.

Leadership development is an important part of denominational responsibility. Now I realize that the local church is the foundation of such development. The local church must identify, raise, train, and encourage leaders. Beyond this, the denomination can oversee, train, encourage, and challenge pastors beyond the local church level. Studies show that pastors leave the ministry in large numbers and that there are crucial points in the pastor’s journey where these exits occur. These areas must be addressed by a denomination that truly cares about leadership development and about its leaders.

Committed fellowship is the sharing of life and ministry with those of like minds. The denomination should provide the platform for pastors and people who share common core beliefs and values to build friendships and share in ministry. When I first entered
the ministry, denominational meetings were times to get together with people I didn’t get to see often, but could get to know better and enjoy talks, walks, and meals with them.

In all of these areas we need strong encouragement to walk together, minister faithfully, and keep the faith. Denominational leaders have a voice and a platform from which they can offer such encouragement.

Prediction: “More large churches will function like mini‐denominations. These churches will have multiple locations. They will have one senior or lead pastor, and several other campus pastors. They are more likely to fund their own missions priorities, even if they
are also contributing to a denominational missions fund. Many of them will write their own small group literature. Some will have their own church planting strategies.”

It’s easy to see why this prediction is coming to pass. Large churches have the advantage of the resources to accomplish such ministries, but also have the edge in staying close to their people and providing a consistency in ministry that denominations
can’t or won’t.

Prediction: “Increased church acquisitions. Smaller churches will seek to be acquired by larger churches in increasing numbers. One of the big factors is simply personnel cost. Many smaller churches can no longer afford to pay a pastor a salary and benefits,
particularly health care benefits.”

This prediction seems to be tied somewhat to the previous one. Smaller churches will find that being a part of a larger church/church network will provide greater benefits than a denominational association with fewer of the negative demands.

What can a denomination do?

Well, I would recommend exploring, identifying and implementing ways to build bridges, strengthen ties, and provide real encouragement to its member churches and especially to its pastors. I have already provided a lengthy list of ways that I think could
help to accomplish this to current denominational leaders, so I won’t list them here. Most require only effort, without costing a cent or demanding any additional personnel or overhead.

Focus. The first step is to slough off the past that has ceased to be productive. These are the words of Peter Drucker, management guru. Every organization has activities, programs, and investments that drain resources but produce little if any results in return. These have become entrenched in the way we do things and we have grown comfortable with them, but they must be identified and removed to free resources for the really important and effective ministries that will benefit growth. As painful as it will be, removing the dead weight will also provide a new sense of freedom and energy, because we no longer carry the heavy burden of dead and dying appendages.

Prediction: “Many denominational structures are becoming smaller because their churches are declining. Others are feeling economic pinches. This trend of smaller and more efficient denominational structures at all levels will only become more pervasive
in 2014.”

Find ways of encouraging and promoting, church growth, evangelism, and church planting. In God’s Word and in His program for the church, these are primary, vital, essential. Of course, these areas are the concern of the local church as well. But the denomination has a role and resources to help in ways that the local church alone doesn’t.

Prediction: “Decline in conversion growth. American churches that grow are more likely to get their growth at the expense of other churches. Evangelism is waning in many churches, and fewer non‐believers are becoming Christians. The negative reaction to
programmatic evangelistic methods has evolved into an overreaction. Too few churches emphasize personal and church‐based evangelism.”

Most churches will lose at least half their congregate by 2025 due to the loss of a generation of church goers who will not be replaced.

Prediction: “Church movement to the community. The posture of many American churches in the most recent decades has been to find ways to get people in the community to come to the church. That is shifting, perhaps dramatically. In more churches, the congregation will move to the community. Instead of a philosophy of “y’all come,” the dominant theme will be “we’ll go.” The congregants will be a more powerful presence in the community they serve, thus ministering to, influencing, and reaching more people with the gospel.”

The invitation to sinners is “Come” but the command to the church is “Go.” A denomination that wants to serve its churches must find ways to help them “Go.”

Dry and monotonous denominational meetings ought to be turned into training seminars and pep rallies. I recently witnessed a regional meeting of a secular network marketing business (experiencing phenomenal growth)where information was shared
about the company’s success and progress, about best business practices, and about how they can stay focused and motivated to pursue financial gain, but it was anything but dry or boring. It was informative, instructional and inspirational. That is what our
churches need on a spiritual level. When we gather church leaders together, we can’t afford to waste that valuable time on reports and procedures that have little, if any, effect on our effectiveness in ministry. Some information needs to be retained as essential to organizational needs and growth. Some information needs to be jettisoned. Some information needs to be repackaged into a form that is more practical, motivational and beneficial to our vision, purpose, priorities and goals. We need to meet and conduct important business, but I have observed from 39 years of meetings that much of what we do is routine, perfunctory, un‐useful and un‐imaginative (you can insert boring). But it doesn’t have to be this way! More time must also be allowed at these meetings for fellowship and networking.

Prediction: “Longer pastoral tenure. There will be incremental but steady growth in the length of tenure of pastors at a given church. Part of the reason is the influence of the Millennials who do not view larger churches as their next step in ministry. Part of the
reason is economic; moving in today’s economy is not nearly as easy in pre‐recession days. Hopefully, the main reason is a sense of God’s call to stay rather than move.”

Of course, research has shown that pastoral tenure is less than 4 years, but that long term pastoral ministry is more effective for church growth. To the two reasons mentioned above for longer tenure, I will add a third that will produce negative results in ministry: staying at a church because the pastor feels trapped with little or no opportunity to do otherwise and fearful churches who hang on to ineffective pastors out of fear that they won’t be able to replace them. However, it would seem advantageous for a denomination to encourage longer tenured pastorates and provide training and help to ineffective pastors.

I will close this challenge by revealing my optimistic side. I believe there is still a place for denominations, if those denominations can adapt to present realities while holding firmly to timeless truth. But they can’t afford to move at a snail’s pace or they will lose by a hare. The time has come to face the harsh realities of 21st century ministry with the hope of the life‐transforming gospel. We can’t continue to put new wine in old wine skins. The result is disastrous. Let us learn from the Master about how to conduct effective ministry. Radical measures are needed, but vast opportunities are visible to the one with eyes of faith. Some may say that what I am proposing is risky. The Bible uses another five‐letter word to describe it: FAITH. I believe it may be more risky to move cautiously or do nothing at this point. Like Abraham, we will have to leave Ur if we want to see the promised land. The way may seem uncertain, unknown, risky. But it is the way of FAITH. May God help us to move out for Him.

For those interested in reviewing the entire list of predictions, they may be viewed at:
www.TheAmericalChurchMag.com